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On Day One of Q4 2012, Consider the 'Disney Theme Park Concept of Investing'


Have fun, manage your expectations, bring a raincoat, and carry a bottle of Pepto -- the rides are often more perilous than you think.

Typically, as patrons enter the park for the first day of their stint, their hopes and aspiration are enormous. But what is not yet apparent, in all their adolescent excitement, are a few factors which can soon shift their paradigm and begin to wear on their reason for involvement. These factors include such things as: one- to two-hour lines for a three-minute ride, the potential for rain (and being drenched for the remainder of the day), the blusterous heat combined with humidity and stagnant wind, rides that are more treacherous than originally thought, and most of all, getting sick from either the rides or the food ingested throughout the day. Otherwise stated: Expectations set the stage for greatness or disappointment. It's a matter of understanding in what way they were set.

When I was young my dad would always to tell me about the five "Ps" -- Prior Preparation Prevents Poor Performance." With the semiconductors having broken their double-top neckline, the transports showing no immediate sign of strength, economic numbers beginning to wane, and corporate earnings being lowered prior to announcement, the potential for a hot rainy day with long lines is increasing. However, if the market's recent breakout holds (S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) 1,400), it could be a race to the end of the year and it sets the technical sights at 1,550.

Have fun, manage your expectations, bring a raincoat, and carry a bottle of Pepto-Bismol, as the rides are typically more perilous than originally anticipated!

Editor's Note: Read more at Tesseract Asset Management.

Twitter: @TAM_News
No positions in stocks mentioned.

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