Option Strategy: The Homebuilder Dispersion Trade
Here, a look at an option strategy that can be used to minimize downside risk while gaining unlimited upside exposure.
Widely followed housing indices and ETFs such as the SPDR S&P Homebuilders (XHB) and the PHLX Housing Sector (^HGX) are up 58% and 51%, respectively, in 2012.
And things seem to just keep looking up for the group: Last week Fed Chairman Bernanke unleashed his latest bazooka shot, promising to focus on mortgage backed securities (MBSs). He hopes this will underpin home prices and create a wealth affect as well as spur new construction activity, which would go toward addressing unemployment.
On Tuesday Goldman Sachs (GS) issued upgrades and buy recommendations on a handful of names including some of those mentioned above. Also on Tuesday, the National Association of Home Builders sentiment index jumped to a six-year high. On Wednesday we’ll get some more insight with existing home sales data.
But before jumping onto this bandwagon (as it is potentially very late in the game), remember that interest rates have already been at historic lows for over two years. But strict lending standards mean that many potential buyers, especially first-time buyers, have difficulty getting loans.
It also should be noted that many banks simply don’t have the staff, or they have such a large backlog of properties in foreclosure, that the mechanism for transferring the Fed’s bond buying into open-market lending just isn’t in place. And of course all those (impending) foreclosures represent a large shadow inventory estimated near 1.3 million units which is equal to over a year’s worth of sales.
Let’s take a look at an option strategy that we can use to minimize downside risk while gaining unlimited upside exposure. This goes well beyond just buying calls.
A dispersion strategy is comprised of selling option premium in an index or exchange traded fund and simultaneously buying options on individual names that are components of the index. The theory is that the index, because some components will outperform others, will have a lower volatility. The dampening effect of some winners offsetting losers means the index should have a lower beta, or move on a lower percentage basis both up and down, than most of the individual names.
Large, sophisticated hedge funds will apply this strategy on both the put and call sides. They have the financial and computational firepower to do it with broad products such as the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), where they can sell options on the index and then buy the appropriate number of options contracts on each of the 500 components in the index. (I don’t think we are ready for that.)
Let’s look at how we can apply this concept to the homebuilders. XHB is up 58% for the year to date. That is impressive but still falls short as many of its holdings -- such as such as Toll, PulteGroup, and Beazer Homes (BZH) -- have gained 75%, 79% and 61% for the year to date. I’m going to use these figures to make the assumption that the individual names will continue to gain about 20 percentage points, or perform 33% better, on any continued upside.
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