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Now's the Time to Buy Emerging Market ETFs as a Low-Valuation Play


Though this sector has lagged other markets, it has the potential for a solid comeback.

Buy the Laggards

Emerging markets have lagged the US market advance and probably will catch up, and should be bought as a low-valuation play. For instance, in the first three quarters of 2012 the China GDP is up 7.7% , and the economy could meet the government's 7.5% target for the full year.

There is much skepticism about China, investors questioning the country's direction and the veracity of its reporting; China's economy and future has been called "roach hotel" by a hedge fund manager. In a global economy that is seeking growth, if China can maintain its growth or anywhere near it, it will help the Asian economies, as well as helping global growth.

If you want to invest in China, and I think China long term will be a good buy, there are less risky ways to do so. One way is to buy China through ETFs that include China in its portfolios along with other emerging countries. If China does well the emerging markets will do well, but emerging markets are not solely dependent on China performing.

The WisdomTree Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA:DEM) has about 15% China in its portfolio and has a 4.05% dividend. DEM has often outperformed its benchmark, which is the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (NYSEARCA:EEM). The WisdomTree Small-Cap Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA:DGS) has about 4% exposure to China, and pays a current dividend rate of 3.35%. The RevenueShares ADR Fund ETF (NYSEARCA:RTR) has a China exposure of 12% and pays a 3.64% dividend. RTR is weighted by revenues, and gives exposure to developed countries as well. Some ETFs in these countries are selling are selling at multiples that are priced to a continuing recession, but recessions do end.

For pure-play China, the recently launched WisdomTree China Dividend Ex-Financial ETF (NYSEARCA:CHXF) is a well-diversified way to play that country. CHXF has about 40% of its holdings in small and mid-cap companies and about 60% in large cap, which is a reasonable balance. It is expected to pay about a 3% dividend, and sells at about 12 times earnings, a low multiple.

Certainly there is sentiment for emerging markets to move higher. WisdomTree's Jeremy Schwartz wrote that the current dividend yields for emerging markets indexes in 2012 are in one of the high dividend yield periods. These periods were historically associated with higher performances in the following calendar years. Schwartz's team broke 23 years of index data into two buckets. The positioning of various years into these buckets was based on their trailing 12-month dividend yield values of each respective calendar year. The results showed that the 12-month dividend yield had a definite connection with the returns of the following calendar years.

WisdomTree's calculations showed that as of April 30, 2012, the 12-month dividend yield of emerging markets equities was 2.93%, which would rank as the fourth highest dividend yield year of the 23 calendar years studied. The calendar years 12-month performance for the highest dividend years, in the following 12 months, averaged over 17% better than the average performance of all 23 calendar years.

This performance should not be judged in isolation, but is shown as a further reason to consider investing in emerging markets, which have lagged other markets but have the potential for a solid comeback.
Positions in DEM, DGS, and RTR.
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