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A Look at JPMorgan Ahead of Earnings


JPMorgan has beat earnings in the last four out of five quarters and in both 2010 and 2011 as a whole. What will happen tomorrow?

MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) will report its earnings before the market opens on Friday, October 12, 2012. Since the infamous trade that lost the company almost $6 billion, shares of the stock have been down 19%. Yesterday the stock jumped 6%, most likely from pre-earnings speculation. Although a trade like this would be devastating for most companies, JPMorgan has a dominant domestic franchise in the US, and has been developing an international presence.

JPMorgan has beat earnings in the last four out of five quarters and for both 2010 and 2011 as a whole. Earnings were highest this year in Q1 at $1.31 and are expected to decline till the end of the year as the company spreads its losses. Q4 2011 was the worst quarter for earnings in the last year; they missed the mark by about 1.3% and revenue expectations were missed by 0.05%.

JPMorgan was trading around $42.35 about an hour into Thursday's open. The stock is up 27.64% since January, only about $4 short of the 52-week high, $46.49, and far from its 52-week low in October 2011, $28.28. In the short run, JPMorgan is in a bullish trend with some bearish momentum and lower than normal volatility. The 10- and 20-day moving averages are trending higher, as well as the 10- and 40-week moving averages.

Date PreEarn PostEarn Change
07/13/12 $34.04 $36.07 $+2.03 (6.0%)
04/13/12 $44.84 $43.21 $-1.63 (-3.6%)
01/13/12 $36.85 $35.92 $-0.93 (-2.5%)
10/13/11 $33.20 $31.60 $-1.60 (-4.8%)

Thirty-day historical volatility is 19.3%, while the 30-day implied volatility is 25.9% down about 0.7 percentage points today. The average move in the past for earnings has been around 4.2%, and the stock is expecting about 3.6% move by October expiration.

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