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Was Gold's Opening Surge Friday Morning a Glimpse of Things to Come?


Despite its complete retracement, gold's key support held through Friday's close.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Gold's initial surge Friday morning was retraced entirely, but its pullback limit held. Almost any new attempt to rally Monday would suggest that Friday's "warning shot across the bow" meant business.

Dollar Basket
Friday's initial dips were recovered into positive territory, and the afternoon tested the 82.80 bounce limit that must hold in order to keep alive potential for resuming the decline down to 81.40.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Friday's tests of 1.3105 resistance up to 1.3135 were retraced back into Thursday's range, but never turned negative intraday. The next probe above 1.3105 must extend to fill the gap back up to 1.3200 or else the recovery pattern will be undermined.

Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
1395.00-1400.00 served as an inflection point to a surge Thursday night that attacked the 1428.00 objective. Its complete retracement prior to actually touching 1428.00 suggests that its eventual test will extend higher, probably to 1441.00 and then 1456.00. But 1395.00 must meanwhile hold as support, and it was being tested Friday afternoon down to 1391.50.

May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Friday's dip to 22.87 didn't threaten 22.45, keeping alive the attraction up to at least 24.15, but closing above 23.25-23.55 is needed to trigger a breakout.

30-Year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Friday's narrow ranging around 148.00 was interesting for its lack of volatility, keeping alive potential for at least a temporary probe of fresh highs, potentially up to 149-14.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Thursday night's fresh highs tested 88.80 before reacting back down temporarily into negative territory. Back under 88.15 at this stage would end the rally, resuming the decline to 85.00. Otherwise, almost any further strength would target 91.00.

Natural Gas
Thursday's surge only consolidated Friday, and did not extend higher to confirm the larger pattern's breakout. The rally can still resume so long as pullbacks recover quickly from testing 4.30-4.32.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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