Risk Assets Likely to Further Correct Before Another Move Higher Commences
Currencies failed to break through technical levels this time around and bond yields are telling us that there's more to go in this short-term correction in risk assets.
So, my work here is designed to focus on the biggest, most liquid markets in the world (currencies and fixed income). I do that so that we can get a truer picture of what's going on with institutional investors globally than can be seen in stocks alone.
Right now, bonds are sending out cautious short-term signals while currencies are backing off after some sharp moves. Once we see targets hit on the downside in yields, we should see a renewed rally in risk assets and a sell-off in safety-oriented assets.
We continue to play the waiting game with the EURUSD.
Apparently with the entire European continent back to work now, we are to be on high alert for more meaningful news flow from "over there." For the last several weeks while the news flow has been slowed due to vacation, the euro / US dollar currency cross (EURUSD) has been working its way higher as part of what I'm feeling is a wave (ii) correction.
Second wave corrections can sometimes re-trace 100% of the preceding first waves, so we must be cognizant of the possibility of that scenario playing out here. However, given the evidence at hand thus far, there's a good chance that we could end up seeing the EURUSD hit the proverbial wall at its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (of wave (i)) line resistance at 1.25932. Last Thursday, the EURUSD peaked out at the 1.25888 level on an intraday basis. The cross has backed off a bit since then, but that level is still very close by and doesn't give the EURUSD – or the risk assets that seem to be trading in tandem with it – much more room to run.
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The US Dollar Index ($DXY) is once again echoing the potentially cautious message that the EURUSD is sending out. In this case, though, the DXY is approaching its 50% retracement (of wave (i)) line resistance level as it working its way through a wave (ii) correction of its own. That resistance for the DXY comes into play at 81.09 – it hit an intraday low of 81.22 last Thursday and has since bounced a bit. From Tuesday morning's level of around 81.70, a move down to 81.09 doesn't leave a lot of room to the downside for the DXY. As the DXY's (and the euro's) movements have been a clear driver of the directional moves in risk assets, only a little room left before support is hit in the DXY could / should translate to only a little room being left in the rally in stocks.
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