Bonds, Currencies Suggest Risk Assets May Soon Be Making a Short-Term Top
Charts indicate that we are likely to see a 5-10% correction during the summer months once the next bout of selling starts.
Let's jump right into the charts to illustrate more clearly the rationale for my up-then-down call.
The US dollar has been hit hard recently and is due for a bounce.
The US dollar futures (@DX – shown below) have been in the process or correcting lower after a five wave sequence to the upside. So far, the greenback has retraced 61.8% of the December to May up move. The move lower that has made up this retracement (let's call it wave "a") appears to me to have run its course and should now be followed by a wave "b" that will either move up to just below 83 or maybe all the way up to 84.7 (from just under 82 currently). This should either be driven by a little more downside in the Yen (the multi-day breather mentioned above) or renewed weakness in the euro or both. Let's take a look at those charts to see what may be brewing…
The Japanese yen's bounce has put a damper on the carry trade – is there more to come?
The seemingly relentless sell-off in the yen that took place since December looks to me like it was a five-wave sequence that finally ran its course down at 0.9652 (just above my downside projection of 0.9618). The bounce that occurred since the May 22 low appears to have been wave "a" of an "abc" correction. Thursday and Friday's long-tailed candles indicated to me that wave "a" was over and that a few days of downside (wave "b") should take place. The support for this downside action in the Yen should come in at the 38% retracement of the 5/22 – 6/6 up move at 1.0189. If that support holds, then wave "c" should take the Yen up to the 1.1066 level (also the 38.2% retracement of the December to May sell-off). Any break and close below 1.0189, however, will likely lead to a re-test of the recent lows – but I am not calling for that right now. All I am forecasting is for the yen to pull back to around 1.0189 and then resume its correction to the upside. Based on recent relationships, the Yen's projected path should coincide with a bit more upside in stocks and then another downside correction – perhaps taking stocks back down to 1,600 or below on the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX).
The "head & shoulders" top in the euro (mentioned here previously) may be coming to fruition.
In recent weeks' articles here on the Minyanville, I have put forth that the euro futures (@EC) may be forming a "head & shoulders" topping pattern. So far, the series of zigs and zags for which I have called have played out just as I thought they would. Now, EC is trading right at the wave "c" correction resistance level. That level also closely corresponds with the projected "right shoulder" resistance (see the parallel trend lines on the chart). The fact that the Williams %R indicator is reading "overbought" right now is further evidence that the euro's recent upside should fizzle out at or near current levels.
If I am correct and the euro tops out in this "head & shoulders" formation, the next move should push the euro down to at least the 1.2420 level and perhaps down to the 1.2206 level. If either of those two downside targets are approached or hit, it is tough to imagine that other risk assets will be trading bullishly.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.