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Gold's Choppiness Is Chipping Away at Something, and Long Bond's FOMC Rally May Be Premature


And the impatient bounces off support suggest that's what it's chipping away at.


The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.
Today's Highlight: Gold's volatility is within a recent range, while currencies are volatile around their recent ranges. But each reflects very divergent opinion in the markets, likely to launch trends.           

Dollar Basket
Tuesday's retracement ended back in the range needed to reverse down without delay and maintain the signal triggered by Monday's break -- and Wednesday's gap down complied. A second consecutive lower close would now confirm the pattern targeting 79.55 and under 79.40.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Monday's breakout targeting 1.3885 and 1.3915 was retraced back into the range Tuesday, and then resumed immediately Wednesday as the pattern required in order to remain valid. Now a second consecutive higher close would confirm.

Jun Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Tuesday's quick bounce from testing 1285.00-1289.00 support was too optimistic to be bullish. An overnight drop retracing the the bounce proved as much, and its reaction up was also retraced intraday. Closing above 1303.00 would be bullish, but meanwhile an eventual drop under 1285.00 resuming the decline has become likely.

May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Wednesday's dip further below 19.75 makes a retest of Friday's 19.04 opening gap down likely at some point in this leg.

30-Year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Wednesday's bounce up to 134-30 confirmed that Tuesday's drop, which held the 134-10 pullback limit, was only a detour on the way to new highs above 135-10. The next confirmation? New highs above 135-10.

Crude Oil
May Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Dipping Wednesday to 99.35 after Tuesday's failed surge above 102.00 doesn't help to resume the bounce for a retest of the highs above 104.00. The reversal down is probably premature to launch a new downleg, at least for this dip, so I have no signal either way at this time.

Natural Gas
Wednesday morning's dip recovered, rising back to Tuesday's highs, and is now positioned to greet Thursday's EIA report without much pessimism.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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