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A Lost Weekend for Gold, Silver, and Crude Oil


Take a look at the intraday action in commodities.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Friday's pressures were retraced into the new week Monday. The shallowest reaction was in currencies, while precious metals and crude oil fell aggressively to reject Friday's bounces.

Dollar Basket
Monday's open gapped up to pierce last week's high, but never extended higher. The balance of the session ranged narrowly flat-to-lower. Early strength Tuesday could still extend higher, but otherwise an attack on recent lows remains likely.

Dec Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Although Monday's gap down to the 1.2920 area probed all of last week's lows, the balance of the session ranged narrowly flat-to-higher. A lower close Tuesday would get the benefit of the doubt for extending down to 1.2750. Otherwise, almost any initial strength would be credible for launching a retest of recent highs up to the 1.3200 area.

Dec Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Monday's gap down obviously failed to extend the rally immediately, which qualifies as beginning a downleg. The $32 drop from Friday's 1790.00 high down to 1758.00 did expend a lot of energy very quickly without actually gaining traction closing under the 1760.00 area. So the drop may have ended as quickly as it began, or else its next resistance (e.g. 1814.00) should be rejected very quickly..

Dec Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Delaying the rally Monday essentially signals that a new downleg has begun. The sizable roundtrip from Friday's 35.28 high down to 33.63 Monday may have expended more selling pressure than can be sustained so quickly. Unless the reversal down is confirmed Tuesday by a second consecutive lower close, the 35.40 should still be tested.

30-year Treasury
Dec Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Friday's inhibition to resume the decline was rewarded by a fresh high Monday. Thursday's 147-19 high was probed up to 147-28, but the session essentially ranged around Thursday's high. This rally's pattern won't trigger a buy signal, as its sponsorship is weak-handed, but now a higher sell signal than 146-06 can trigger back under 147-04.

Crude Oil
Nov Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Having held its 93.00 bounce limit Friday, fresh lows remained in-play down to 89.75 and 87.00. Monday's gap down under Thursday's low resumed the drop, and 93.00 must still hold as resistance.

Natural Gas
Monday missed an opportunity to close above 2.90 and resume the rally. Its recovery Tuesday may be given a benefit of the doubt, but it is not any more likely to trigger.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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