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Did the 30-Year Treasury (NYSEARCA:TLT) Stretch Its Rubber Band Too Far?


The long bond had signaled already that this week's bounce was temporary.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: The long bond had signaled already that this week's bounce was temporary. Thursday's action heightens the pattern's vulnerability to reversing down. So, it's interesting that no economic reports are scheduled before the weekend.

Dollar Basket
Thursday's gap up soon peaked. Its retracement held 79.40 support, so its test Friday could be the second part of a two-day peak, in place of a traditional one-day pattern that would have rejected the fresh high intraday..

Dec Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Thursday's gap down did not extend lower any more so than did Wednesday's gap down. But Thursday's session remained under pressure throughout. RSIs diverged positively into session lows, so fresh highs above 1.3200 would be triggered back above 1.3020.

Dec Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Thursday morning's dive back under 1760.00 was recovered to back above 1770.00 - almost. Friday must maintain a breakout above the current consolidation range, or else the pattern will become very top-heavy, very quickly.

Dec Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Thursday morning's momentary dive to 34.12 was retraced entirely back into positive territory. But what seems like strength will become weakness if Friday does not exploit the recovery by producing a fresh high close above 35.00.

30-year Treasury
Dec Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Wednesday's close back at/under Tuesday's high robbed the bounce of its momentum. It did not signal momentum reversing down. So, Thursday's gap up was doomed to failure, and it retraced entirely. Now closing under 146-06 would trigger a drop targeting new lows under 144-10, and bounces meanwhile should hold 147-10.

Crude Oil
Oct Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Having slid recently so substantially, Thursday's session only ranged narrowly. The 93.00 bounce limit was never attacked, let alone touched.At least 89.75 should be touched, and its break would confirm that 87.00 is in-play.

Natural Gas
Thursday's gap up into a narrowly ranging flat session offered no new directional clues. There was no requirement to reject or extend Wednesday's reversal. It is still too soon in the pattern to calculate a lower buy signal.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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