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Gold's Wide Range Is Preparation for a Breakout


The intraday elasticity of a $29 intraday range suggests the next leg will be substantial.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Gold's volatility Tuesday suggests that the pattern is ready to resume trending, and in a very big way. Gold's biggest moves tend to happen overnight, but they are still credible for extending the next day.

Dollar Basket
Tuesday's bounce to 84.30 stopped short of triggering the 84.45 buy signal. The pessimism just below prior highs suggests that at least a fresh high will be probed.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
1.2955 resistance held again. Closing under 1.2840 Wednesday would confirm new lows at 1.2745 were in-play.

Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Tuesday morning's probe under 1383.00 in negative territory was recovered to test 1401.50 resistance. But the bounce failed as the session reversed back down under 1383.00. Closing under 1377.00 and 1372.00 would confirm a new downleg underway, still having some support to work through at 1367.00 on the way to new lows.

May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Tuesday's gap down never extended down, and only ranged sideways until fill the gap back to 22.50. A dip has room down to 21.80 before signaling a more substantial downleg has resumed.

30-year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
More ranging at the lows without yet bouncing above a prior high finally proved to be taking too long to be bullish. Instead, Tuesday's gap down to the 142-19 target's lows soon broke lower sharply to 141-09. Bounces should hold 141-24 to maintain this leg's momentum next targeting 140-14.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Tuesday's gap up to and through 95.00 could extend the rally to 98.10 if 96.60 were also recovered without delay. There is otherwise no momentum reversal signaled.

Natural Gas
Gapping down Tuesday to 4.16 tried to recover, but spent the day essentially ranging back to 4.16. The rally must resume with almost no further delay if it is valid, and if a deeper dip to at least 4.05 can be avoided.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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