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Is the 30-Year Treasury About to Bounce?


The long bond's decline has lost a lot of momentum; a corrective bounce could be starting.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Despite probing a fresh low Monday, the long bond's decline lost a lot of momentum. Not extending the decline Tuesday would suggest at least a corrective bounce is beginning.

Dollar Basket
Monday's sideways ranging did not threaten its 82.70 pullback limit, keeping the rally's momentum intact.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
The decline's 1.3105 bounce limit was not threatened Monday, keeping its momentum intact.

Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Friday's post-close rally back up to 1448.00 was reversed Sunday night, retesting the drop's 1429.50 target Monday, which held again through the close. It's not yet enough to signal the corrective drop has ended, or to prevent first testing 1400.00, but it does still suggest a test of 1400.00 would likely hold.

May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Sideways ranging Monday held 23.55 support, but also avoided recovering any prior high that might inhibit reversing back down to test the corrective drop's eventual 22.95 target.

30-Year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Sunday night's gap down extended to test 144-06. Bounces were resisted by the decline's 144-28 target that had held its test as support Friday. Closing back above 145-06 would now begin signaling a bigger bounce underway.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Monday's open gapped down slightly from Friday's recovery to 96.00. Dipping down a little further didn't extend as the session formed an inside day. Back above 96.00 would now be capable of resuming the rally targeting 98.10. Back under 93.75 would extend the decline.

Natural Gas
The 3.95-4.00 range was probed as resistance from below on Monday, still needing a recovery above 4.05 to signal momentum reversing up.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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