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Gold Trading: Is This the Pause That Refreshes?


Now it comes down to which way the range breaks first.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Gold's relatively narrow ranging between support and resistance might be just what the recovery-doctor ordered. But a recovery isn't signaled until closing above resistance, so the trend is meanwhile likelier to extend down.

Dollar Basket
Wednesday's gap up back above 82.25 prior lows extended higher to attack 82.80, which must hold to maintain potential for resuming the decline to its 81.40 target.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Wednesday's gap down immediately slid under the 1.3105 pullback limit to test the past week's 1.3035 lows. Tuesday's breakout is invalidated, and a second consecutive lower close would confirm momentum has reversed down. There is otherwise potential for retesting Tuesday's 1.3200 close.

Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Wednesday formed the most bullish price action for this stage of the pattern, and only ranged relatively narrowly, holding tests of 1364.50-1372.00 as support and 1395.00-1400.00 as resistance. Breaking either end of the range would be likely to trend about $30 in that direction.

May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Gapping down Wednesday held tests of 22.45 as support to avoid triggering a probe of new lows, but can't afford to extend down any further if there is potential for fresh recovery highs to test 24.15.

30-year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Having held the 147-14 pullback limit, the rally resumed up to 148-21 to probe above overnight highs that had yet to be retested intraday. Now pullbacks must hold 148-00 as support to maintain the 149-16 target.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Tuesday's second consecutive close under 89.25 quickly fulfilled its 87.00 minimum objective Wednesday by nearly a $1 margin. This leg can extend to 85.00 before expecting it to accelerate down.

Natural Gas
Wednesday's initial strength fulfilled the bullish 2-day Pivot Reversal setup described after Tuesday's close. Its brief dip back barely pierced negative territory before recovering back to 4.21, targeting 4.50 so long as pullbacks now hold 4.18 as support.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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