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Silver's 'Inside Day' Keeps the Possibility of a Rally Alive


The setup bought a little time -- but only a little time.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Silver's "inside day" Thursday bought a little time for the pattern to launch an upleg. But only a little time.

Dollar Basket
Wednesday's 83.40 close reacted down Thursday by gapping back under 83.20 and extending to attack 83.00. The gap back to Wednesday's close should inhibit a downleg from forming.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Thursday's gap up ranged sideways above Wednesday's 1.2800 high and under Tuesday's 1.2850 low. The gap down to Wednesday's 1.2780 close should attract price back down, so long as 1.2865 is not recovered.

Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Thursday's gap down through 1602.00 (basis Jun, 1601.00 basis Apr) extended quickly back to Tuesday's 1595.00 low, then ranged there narrowly. There was no bullish reason to revisit that low, making a sudden reaction down likely of the pattern still intends to avoid launching a new upleg - so, without resolving down suddenly, a new upleg would be likely.

May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Thursday afternoon's attack on Wednesday's lows avoided probing fresh lows, keeping alive the potential for a recovery above 28.65 to extend higher.

30-year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Thursday's narrow ranging within Wednesday's range kept is now likely to extend the rally by gapping up to attack its 145-14 / 145-22 targets.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
The rally extended higher Thursday without hesitation to test 97.00. The 99.00 target remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 95.95 as support.

Natural Gas
A "pivot reversal" session formed Thursday by gapping down and ending the day under the morning's 4.03 low, rallying intraday for just long enough to pierce Wednesday's 4.10 high. The setup is normally bearish, although filling the gap back to Wednesday's 3.97 close does allow a fresh high Monday to qualify as a breakout anyway.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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