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Promises, Promises... Gold and Natural Gas Threaten to Rally


Bonds extended their rally, while natural gas and gold threatened to start one.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: With little exception, Thursday's markets were volatile. With little exception, that volatility was all contained within their recent ranges. Bonds extended their rally, while natural gas and gold threatened to start one.

Dollar Basket
Despite gapping up to a new high Thursday, the rally did not trend higher intraday. Neither was it retraced. Extending the rally Friday all but requires gapping up again, where there would still be risk of reversing down before noon. Otherwise, the 82.10 target remains in-play.

Dec Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Thursday's gap down to a new low did not trend down any further intraday, and it wasn't retraced. Not extending down without further delay would risk being rejected sharply higher into and out of the weekend. The 1.2400 target otherwise remains intact.

Dec Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Thursday's retest of 1717.00 extended back up to Wednesday's ~1730.00 intraday high. A more credible bottom would have retested 1700.00 first, but a rally could be underway into and out of the weekend unless rejected almost immediately Friday.

Dec Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Thursday's recovery back up to Wednesday's test of 32.25 could extend higher without there being any requirement to test lower levels first. But almost any delay in extending higher Friday would keep the door open to resuming the decline into and out of the weekend.

30-Year Treasury
Dec Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
No pullback intervened after Wednesday's gap up. So Thursday gapped up, too. And into the 30-year auction, no less. Gapping back down to 150-10 would form an Island Reversal that could extend down much further. Otherwise, an intraday dip down to 150-10 would likely hold as support and then recover.

Crude Oil
Dec Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Wednesday's new low was not rejected Thursday, and Wednesday's steep, deep intraday drop was consolidated. The 82.00 target remains intact.

Natural Gas
Thursday's gap down to 3.54 was just above last Friday's prior low, and within the interim range. Sellers gained no traction for the effort and left no unfinished business below. In fact, the balance of the session trended back up to Tuesday afternoon's false break higher, presumably preparing to extend higher into and out of the weekend.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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