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Did Crude's Reaction to Gaza News Seem a Little Reserved?


Meanwhile, natural gas lifted sharply higher today.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Natural gas lifted sharply higher Wednesday to confirm a reversal signaled over the prior two session. The second most timely scenario continues to be crude oil, but for an entirely new and dangerous reason.

Dollar Basket
Although Tuesday's reversal from fresh highs failed to extend into negative territory, the reversal did extend lower Wednesday. The close was essentially flat, allowing the rally to resume Thursday.

Dec Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Although Tuesday's recovery from fresh lows failed to extend into positive territory, the recovery did extend higher. Wednesday's open gapped up above the three prior sessions to test 1.2785. Back under 1.2715 would resume the decline, targeting 1.2400.

Dec Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Ranging persisted Wednesday around 1727.00, instead of extending higher as a new upleg. Closing under 1717.00 and 1714.50 would confirm momentum had reversed down, targeting at least 1700.00.

Dec Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Fresh recovery highs attacked the 33.00 target to within a dime. There is no requirement to extend any higher, but back under 32.25 would signal momentum reversing down.

30-year Treasury
Dec Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Tuesday's test of the 152-16 target to within 1 tick did react down sharply Wednesday, attacking the 151-08 reversal signal to within 2 ticks. All was retraced back unto positive territory, and Tuesday's 152-00 close was still being tested at the close. Now closing under 151-18 would signal momentum reversing down, while fresh highs would target 152-30 and potentially 153-14.

Crude Oil
Dec Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Israel's reaction to ongoing shelling from Gaza couldn't help but incite crude oil to firm. The bounce seemed restrained compared to the substantiality of Israel's response, peaking under Friday's 86.70 high. Despite the continued delay in resuming the decline, a fresh low would still trigger its 81.85-82.50 target.

Natural Gas
Tuesday's rally extended sharply higher Wednesday to test 3.80, confirming new highs above 4.00 are in-play.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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