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If Gold and Bonds React Down Again Friday, It Could Be the Start of a Bad Habit

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Take a look at today's commodity news.

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The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Gold's test of resistance pushed price back down, as did the long bond. Another day of reversal could become very difficult to recover from.

Dollar Basket
Dec Contract DX; (NYSEARCA:UUP), (NYSEARCA:UDN)
Thursday's initial strength above 80.00 eventually extended higher to test 80.15, presumably on the way to retesting 80.37 resistance so long as 80.00 now holds as support.

Eurodollar
Dec Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Thursday's dip under 1.2955 touched 1.2930. Closing any lower would target 1.2900, and probably also break it to trigger a new downleg. Otherwise, 1.2930 should react up, at least to attack 1.2990.

Gold
Dec Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Wednesday's test of 1727.00 resistance held an overnight retest before reacting back down sharply Thursday. The afternoon ranged a couple of dollars either way around 1717.00 instead of closing decisively below it which would have put into play 1700.00.

Silver
Dec Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Despite gapping up to test 32.70, the balance of the session dipped back under the week's 32.40 prior high to probe negative territory and still prevent any active signal.

30-year Treasury
Dec Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Wednesday's attack to within 1 tick of the 149-12 target might have sufficed to end the bounce. Its reaction down Thursday attacked 148-00, whose break is still necessary even to begin signaling that momentum has reversed down.

Crude Oil
Dec Contract CL; (NYSEARCAUSO)
Not only was the decline's resumption delayed, but Thursday firmed back above 87.00, suggesting that at least 89.00 would be tested.

Natural Gas
Dec Contract NG; (NYSEARCA:UNG), (NYSEARCA:UNL)
Too many days have been spent testing prior lows not to have chipped away at its support enough for at least an obligatory probe lower. I wouldn't position short here just for that, but would consider selling a premature bounce for its potential failure.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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