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If Gold and Bonds React Down Again Friday, It Could Be the Start of a Bad Habit


Take a look at today's commodity news.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Gold's test of resistance pushed price back down, as did the long bond. Another day of reversal could become very difficult to recover from.

Dollar Basket
Thursday's initial strength above 80.00 eventually extended higher to test 80.15, presumably on the way to retesting 80.37 resistance so long as 80.00 now holds as support.

Dec Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Thursday's dip under 1.2955 touched 1.2930. Closing any lower would target 1.2900, and probably also break it to trigger a new downleg. Otherwise, 1.2930 should react up, at least to attack 1.2990.

Dec Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Wednesday's test of 1727.00 resistance held an overnight retest before reacting back down sharply Thursday. The afternoon ranged a couple of dollars either way around 1717.00 instead of closing decisively below it which would have put into play 1700.00.

Dec Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Despite gapping up to test 32.70, the balance of the session dipped back under the week's 32.40 prior high to probe negative territory and still prevent any active signal.

30-year Treasury
Dec Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Wednesday's attack to within 1 tick of the 149-12 target might have sufficed to end the bounce. Its reaction down Thursday attacked 148-00, whose break is still necessary even to begin signaling that momentum has reversed down.

Crude Oil
Dec Contract CL; (NYSEARCAUSO)
Not only was the decline's resumption delayed, but Thursday firmed back above 87.00, suggesting that at least 89.00 would be tested.

Natural Gas
Too many days have been spent testing prior lows not to have chipped away at its support enough for at least an obligatory probe lower. I wouldn't position short here just for that, but would consider selling a premature bounce for its potential failure.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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