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Euro Breakout Has More Than One Session's Gain in Mind


Take a look at the intraday action in commodities.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Sometimes we can be our own best (contrary) indicators. Wednesday's deep plunge to fresh lows had me entertaining the idea of lowering my target. Of course, Thursday recovered almost the entire plunge.

Dollar Basket
Without immediately extending to fresh highs after Wednesday's peak at the range's upper-end, a drop back to and through the range's lower-end was likely. Thursday's open gapped down back to Tuesday's 79.80 close and then slid below prior lows to 79.35, next targeting 79.00.

Dec Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Wednesday's dip from Tuesday's "ineffectual optimism" was less damaging than the session could have been. In fact, it neutralized the attraction back down to Monday's 1.2900 close. Thursday's gap up above the 1.2955 buy signal extended higher intraday to 1.3040, targeting the 1.3100 area next.

Dec Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Narrow extended ranging around 1780.00 had established that the rally's sponsorship had worn thin, but also that sellers were not ready to retake control. Thursday's gap up to fresh highs attacking 1798.00 suggests the final upleg targeting 1814.00 is underway.

Dec Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Thursday's gap up above 35.00 did not extend higher, and the balance of the day ranged choppily around 35.00. But the initial reaction down did essentially fill the gap back to Wednesday's close, so a second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm 36.75 is in-play.

30-year Treasury
Dec Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Drifting lower Thursday to probe slightly under the past week's lows at 148-27 is too shallow and hesitant to be credible for triggering a durable drop. Closing under 148-10 could be bearish, but the dip should otherwise recover to probe recent highs up to 150-16.

Crude Oil
Nov Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Thursday's gap up to 88.80 extended sharply higher intraday to test 91.80. That might seem to reject Wednesday's even deeper drop, but it does not. The pattern may yet go on to do so, and can firm further to retest 93.55 before reversing down. Regardless, gapping up from Wednesday's 88.00 close and trending up sharply reflect too much optimism at a low to form a durable bottom.

Natural Gas
Thursday morning firmed, but did not recover the 3.45 buy signal that would resume the rally and reinstate its 3.58 and 3.75 targets.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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