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Extremes Being Tested by Bonds and Gold Have a Window for Reacting Down


Take a look at the action in commodities today.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: The net lack of change among the following commodities in three days of hurricane fallout is remarkable. Trending attempts have failed and ranges have persisted. So, testing those range's extremes is likely to reverse direction. For example, we might see the long-bond attacking its resistance, or gold testing its resistance. Perhaps that would allow natural gas to hold its ongoing test of support.

Dollar Basket
The 80.00-80.37 range's resistance held, but a break of its lower-end has yet to break lower decisively. Closing under 79.90 would signal it had. Otherwise, any initial strength would be likely to retest 80.37.

Dec Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Multiple test of 1.2900 support held and prevented a bigger downleg. The eventual reaction up to 1.3027 is now retesting the critical 1.2955 support. Closing any lower would target 1.2900, whose retest is unlikely to hold as support.

Dec Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
While the gap back down to 1700.00 remains unfilled, gapping up above 1717.00 resistance was the only path available for trying to extend higher, which was tried Wednesday. And testing 1727.00 resistance would be the end of trying to extend higher, which it was on Wednesday. A drop back to 1719.00 did not regain traction below, but under 1713.00 would target 1700.00.

Dec Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Wednesday's gap up above 32.00 only tested last week's 32.40 high. The pattern could extend higher, but there is no active signal.

30-year Treasury
Dec Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Dipping back down to 148-00, which had been the corrective bounce target, did not prevent its overthrow from extending higher Wednesday to come within 7 ticks of its extended 149-12 target.

Crude Oil
Dec Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Gapping up Wednesday within the recent range tried probing its 86.40 upper-end intraday to almost 87.20, but 86.40 held ultimately through the close, despite the entire session ranging in positive territory. The "ineffectual optimism" should produce a break lower with no further delay if a bigger bounce targeting 89.00 will be avoided.

Natural Gas
Monday's probe of 3.80 resistance failed to close above it. Tuesday and Wednesday's dips to the 3.70 prior low finished each day still testing it as support, keeping alive potential for closing above 3.80 to trigger a new rally leg.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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