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Crude Oil's Fresh Low May Merit Lowering Targets


Take a look at the intraday action in commodities.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Crude oil's corrective bounce ended abruptly Wednesday. The reaction seemed somewhat outsized compared to the news that triggered it, so I may be lowering my next target soon.

Dollar Basket
Tuesday's touch of 70.55 support did prove to be the range's lower-end when Wednesday gapped up to test the 80.10 prior high at the range's upper-end. A breakout must trigger without delay Thursday to extend the rally, or else a drop back to and through the range's lower-end would become likely.

Dec Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Tuesday's temporary intraday probe above prior highs did prove to be "ineffectual optimism" when Wednesday slid back to Monday's 1.2900 close. That's less damaging than the session could have been, so a bounce back above 1.2955 would be credible for triggering a rally targeting the 1.3100 area.

Dec Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Wednesday's narrow intraday ranging offered no new information, other than to confirm the rally's momentum is not reliable.

Dec Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Like gold, Wednesday's narrow intraday ranging offered no new information, other than to confirm the rally's momentum is not reliable.

30-year Treasury
Dec Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Overnight strength up to 150-06 was erased before Wednesday's open to range narrowly intraday. That would have sufficed for the false break we have been monitoring, but the non-reaction disqualifies it. Still awaiting a fresh high to be rejected, or an open under 148-10, to reverse momentum down.

Crude Oil
Nov Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Two-three days spent ranging in and around 91.20-93.00 did contain the corrective bounce from testing the drop's 89.75 target. The 87.00 target remained in-play, as Wednesday's gap down that extended to fresh lows at 88.00 has confirmed.

Natural Gas
The 3.58 target was denied in favor of opening $.01 under the 3.45 pullback limit and extending down another dime. Back above 3.45 Thursday would reinstate the rally's momentum.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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