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Could Crude Oil Be Any Less Volatile on a Weekday?


Relatively narrow ranging among crude oil and currencies like the euro feels like coiling ahead of a bigger move.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Relatively narrow ranging among crude oil and currencies like the euro feels like coiling ahead of a bigger move. Actually triggering it seems to be the issue.

Dollar Basket
Tuesday's weakness narrowly avoided probing a fresh low by only touching 79.55 instead of breaking under it. A rally can't be delayed, or else a new downleg would be credible.

Dec Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Proving that Monday's session wasn't "ineffectual optimism," Tuesday gapped up and probed the prior two days' highs. Now, Wednesday will need to extend higher at a steeper pace to prove that Tuesday wasn't "ineffectual optimism," either.

Dec Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Tuesday's narrow inside day all but contradicted Monday's surge to fresh highs. It was more in-line with the surge's rejection, without signaling that momentum has actually reversed down. If 1770.00 isn't broken early Wednesday, then there would be much greater potential for one more fresh high targeting 1814.00.

Dec Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Monday's test of the long-standing 35.40 target was not repeated Tuesday. Not even 35.00 was recovered, so 36.75 is not necessarily in-play.

30-year Treasury
Dec Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Another inside day was narrowly avoided, but Tuesday was once again easily contained within the past several sessions' relatively narrow range. Breaking immediately under 148-10 would be credible for extending down. Any shallower dip would more likely recover to fresh highs, and probing fresh highs first would be more credible for reacting down sharply.

Crude Oil
Nov Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Still at or under 93.00 Tuesday, which continues to prevent a rally leg from emerging.

Natural Gas
The 3.58 target was attacked to within $.03 Tuesday, and remains in-play so long as pullbacks were to hold 3.45 as support.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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