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Currencies and Bonds Were Shaken Today While Crude Oil Began to Stir


Gold's bounce today was relatively shallow, compared to the long-bond's plunge and the euro's surge.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Gold's bounce Tuesday was relatively shallow, compared to the long-bond's plunge and the euro's surge. Of course, those markets remained relatively calm while gold plunged Monday. Now that they're in tune with each other, could crude oil be ready to trend?

Dollar Basket
Tuesday's gap down under last week's lows tested 79.40, whose break would target 79.00. There is no other active signal.

Dec Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Despite there being no buy signal putting 1.3100 back into play from 1.2950-1.2975, Monday night's rally produced a gap up Tuesday attacking the 1.3080 prior high. Closing above it would target 1.3200 and potentially 1.3425. Closing back under 1.2950-1.2975 would signal a new downleg underway.

Dec Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
The bounce from Monday's attack on its 1727.00 target firmed a little further Tuesday. Back under 1736.50 would trigger its resumption, with potential for extending down to 1717.00.

Dec Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Tuesday's session essentially ranged narrowly around 33.00, which had been the decline's objective. A retest of Monday's low is needed before the pullback can end.

30-year Treasury
Dec Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Monday's drop got aggressive Tuesday by gapping down to 148-26 and extending down to 148-04. In less than two days, more than 61.8% of the recent rally has been retraced. And more should be retraced, down to at least 147-26 before any bounce could gain traction to become a new upleg.

Crude Oil
Nov Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Monday's recovery from probing deeply intraday under 91.20 did not extend up very much Tuesday. Certainly not above 93.00, whose recovery should have been immediate if Monday's recovery had been accumulation.

Natural Gas
The pullback extended Tuesday down to 3.40. Holding 3.45 would have been optimal, but recovering 3.48 without delay Wednesday would be credible for resuming the rally targeting 3.75.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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