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Monday's Tremors in the Euro, Gold, and Silver Markets Suggest Preparation for Big Moves


Take a look at the intraday action in commodities.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Like tremors felt before an earthquake, several markets retraced opening gaps Monday. Currencies never extended their opens and only ranged narrowly sideways. Gold and silver probed fresh highs before reversing back to Friday's closing levels. Energies held up, but natural gas behaved much more strongly than crude oil.

Dollar Basket
Dec Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Sunday night's fresh high was rejected before Monday's open. Its gap down never extended lower, and the session developed entirely within Friday's range. Probing any lower Tuesday would be credible for extending into a downleg.

Dec Contract EC; (FXE)
Fresh lows were unavoidable after Friday's session. Sunday night fulfilled that, and it recovered before Monday's open. Its gap up spent the entire session in positive territory, but held resistance at Friday's high. Probing any higher Tuesday would be credible for triggering a rally.

Dec Contract GC; (GLD)
Last week, I criticized Thursday's recovery from Wednesday's dip to the 1740.00 corrective target as being too quick. That is still a problem, despite Monday extending higher to retest the 1790.00 prior highs up to 1794.40. In fact, the fresh high was retraced to close back under Thursday and Friday's highs. Back under 1770.00 would signal a deeper corrective leg underway, targeting 1727.00 and 1717.00. Otherwise, another fresh high would instead target 1814.00.

Dec Contract SI; (SLV)
The long-standing 35.40 target was met Monday. It was retraced abruptly back under prior highs, and back under 35.00. Almost any higher close Tuesday would get the benefit of the doubt for putting into play 36.75.

30-year Treasury
Dec Contract US; (TLT)
Monday's inside day maintained the prior three days' trading range that has been hovering narrowly at recent highs. A failed probe of fresh highs is still likelier to trigger a new downleg than simply to try probing lower.

Crude Oil
Nov Contract CL; (USO)
Monday morning's fresh highs at 93.33 ultimately held 93.00 as resistance. In fact, much of the remaining session ranged narrowly around Friday's 92.35 high, suggesting that buying pressure has been expended so the decline can resume.

Natural Gas
Nov Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
Monday's gap up quickly fulfilled the 3.40 target and extended higher to 3.48. So long as 3.40 now holds as support, the 3.58 and 3.75 targets are in-play.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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