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Crude Oil Affected by Threat of Syrian Conflict


Crude oil's price held up well after the rally on heightened tensions had fulfilled its target at Friday's high.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Crude oil's reaction to retesting the rally's target was somewhat muted. Its shallow retracement seemed skeptical that escalating tensions in the Middle East would be brought under control.

Dollar Basket
Monday's open slid through 82.10 support to test 81,.70. Closing back above 81.785 would signal the two-day drop had ended and that last week's highs would soon be probed.

Sep Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Gapping up to and through 1.3205 resistance Monday trended higher intraday. At least probing fresh highs intraday Tuesday is likely. In any case, the downleg will not resume without breaking back under 1.3205.

Dec Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Monday's narrow ranging consolidated Friday's sudden reversal. The recovery should resume Tuesday so long as 1381.00 holds as support.

Dec Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Monday's gap down into the 23.55-23.75 range spent the entire day there, presumably consolidating Friday's rally. The recovery should resume Tuesday without much further delay, and without closing back under 23.55.

30-Year Treasury
Dec Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Fresh lows overnight down to 128-12 retested the three-week old overnight low before Friday's intraday dip back down to 129-04 support was being tested through the close. Monday's open gapped up from its test but only ranged sideways between 129-14/130-01. Closing back under 129-04 would target fresh lows at 127-04.

Crude Oil
Oct Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Friday's retest of the rally's 110.65 target was retraced immediately again, this time only back down to 109.25. Avoiding a second consecutive lower close Tuesday would be likelier to extend the rally.

Natural Gas
Monday's gap up to range up to 3.61 rejected Friday's extended dip, needing a higher close Tuesday to signal the rally had resumed.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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