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Delaying Action in Syria Helped to Trigger Several Signals in Commodities


Gold's extended dip recovered nicely, as did crude oil's hit.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Sunday night's reaction to delaying action in Syria resembled what might happen in the case of world peace. But when that had sunk in, price action began compensating for delays from last week. So long as Sunday night's lows aren't broken, reacting down on another delay would still be likely to recover and resume rallies in commodities.

Dollar Basket
Tuesday morning's test of 82.55 avoided testing Friday's 82.25-82.35 "lower prior highs" as support. Trending higher without delay may be the only way to extend the decline without inserting a bigger bounce.

Sep Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Friday's ~1.3175 prior low was tested by Tuesday's gap down. The balance of the session ranged sideways, probing fresh lows under 1.3140. The trend remains down so long as 1.3220 isn't recovered.

Oct Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Sunday night's gap down to 1374.20 was recovered entirely before Tuesday's open, which then extended into positive territory back above 1410.00, signaling a retest of the 1418.00 and 1428.00 opening gaps underway so long as 1405.50 again holds as support.

Dec Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Sunday night's deep gap down tested "lower prior highs" down to 23.11 before recovering into positive territory up to 24.40, and then extending further to probe above 24.50, confirming momentum has reversed up.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Gapping down back to 131-28 began signaling that filling the outstanding gap above last week had only neutralized upside momentum. Extending down to 130-25 all but confirmed, despite recovering to attack 131-28.

Crude Oil
Oct Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
The most obvious to suffer from delaying any action in Syria, Sunday night's open gapped down sharply to 105.50. But it was recovered through Tuesday to attack 109.00, testing the 108.75 buy signal that puts into play a retest of 110.65 and potentially also of 112.25.

Natural Gas
Tuesday's gap up above 3.64 was already testing 3.67. The balance of the session ranged narrowly just above prior highs. Not that this rally has had much luck at it, but a second consecutive higher close Wednesday would confirm a new upleg underway.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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