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Gold Sees Two Big Down Days, but Are They Enough?

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Last Tuesday and Wednesday's narrow ranging won't be neutralized by price change alone.

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The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Gold's extended drop Friday answered the question as to whether a one-day drop was sufficient to neutralize the selling pressure of the two-day consolidation that had preceded Thursday's drop. The answer was, "no." Is two days sufficient?

Dollar Basket
Sep Contract DX; (NYSEARCA:UUP), (NYSEARCA:UDN)
Two consecutive tests of the 81.45 pullback limit needed to rally immediately Friday to avoid extending into another downleg. Friday's gap up was retraced enough to fill the gap back to Thursday's close, and then recovered back to the open's highs. The balance of the session drifted back down to 81.45. The action isn't definitive for reversing momentum up, but at least it confirms this level's relevance, and the diminishing selling pressure.

Eurodollar
Sep Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Friday's reaction down from recently attacking the 1.3333 bounce limit did not extend, but it did signal that resuming the rally would require new sponsorship.

Gold
Dec Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
The drop extended to test 1304.50, testing August's original buy signal. Closing back above 1321.00 would trigger a bounce targeting 1341.00. Extending any lower would target 1288.00.

Silver
Dec Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Friday's fresh lows down to 21.42 were recovered back up to 21.70. Closing under 22.00 suggested the decline was extending, with potential into the teens. But, for now, at least one more lower close is likely.

30-Year Treasury
Dec Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Thursday night's probe under 129-14 was already recovered by Friday's open, and the recovery extended intraday to retest 130-00 resistance. Closing almost any higher could trigger a rally well into the week.

Crude Oil
Oct Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Friday's drop back to 107.25 was appropriate for having fulfilled the 108.75 bounce objective Thursday without putting into play any higher objective. The lowest new buy signal is now 108.75, although it would be suspicious to trigger Monday.

Natural Gas
Oct Contract NG; (NYSEARCA:UNG), (NYSEARCA:UNL)
An opening dip Friday was recovered and reversed into positive territory, testing a fresh high at 3.69. Fresh highs on a Friday in this market tend to extend at the week's start. Not extending higher Monday would be bearish.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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