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Record Cold May Be Delaying Deeper Drop in Natural Gas

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What does this commodity need, an engraved invitation?

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The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Will natural gas find a catalyst before Thursday's EIA report to trigger a recovery? Record cold doesn't seem to be doing it, and almost any fresh low could trigger a massive head-and-shoulders pattern that has been forming.

Dollar Basket
Mar Contract DX; (NYSEARCA:UUP), (NYSEARCA:UDN)
A momentary fresh high Monday morning was retraced intraday, but not so low as to signal the rally's momentum had lapsed.

Eurodollar
Mar Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Monday's bounce left the confirmed breakout intact despite retracing all of Friday's dip. Any fresh low should resume the decline.

Gold
Feb Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Retesting the 1245.00 overnight high up to almost 1248.00 did not prevent a fat-finger glitch, or generally dipping back to test 1237.00 as support. But potential for extending to 1270.00 remains intact so long as 1232.50 holds as support.

Silver
Mar Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Choppy sideways ranging into and out of positive territory left the 20.70 objective intact, especially so long as Tuesday avoids closing lower.

30-year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Monday's gap up extended higher intraday to 129-11, which is a little too optimistic to consider the bottoming pattern to have yet completed. But its next dip under 128-28 should end the selling pressure.

Crude Oil
Feb Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Monday's dip to 93.35 expended as much selling pressure as possible while still being considered only a pullback, requiring some immediate proof of momentum reversing upward to avoid a more substantial decline.

Natural Gas
Jan Contract NG; (NYSEARCA:UNG), (NYSEARCA:UNL)
Friday's bounce attempt didn't repeat Monday, but fresh lows were avoided so the larger potential head-and-shoulders pattern did not trigger.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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