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Record Cold May Be Delaying Deeper Drop in Natural Gas


What does this commodity need, an engraved invitation?

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Will natural gas find a catalyst before Thursday's EIA report to trigger a recovery? Record cold doesn't seem to be doing it, and almost any fresh low could trigger a massive head-and-shoulders pattern that has been forming.

Dollar Basket
A momentary fresh high Monday morning was retraced intraday, but not so low as to signal the rally's momentum had lapsed.

Mar Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Monday's bounce left the confirmed breakout intact despite retracing all of Friday's dip. Any fresh low should resume the decline.

Feb Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Retesting the 1245.00 overnight high up to almost 1248.00 did not prevent a fat-finger glitch, or generally dipping back to test 1237.00 as support. But potential for extending to 1270.00 remains intact so long as 1232.50 holds as support.

Mar Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Choppy sideways ranging into and out of positive territory left the 20.70 objective intact, especially so long as Tuesday avoids closing lower.

30-year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Monday's gap up extended higher intraday to 129-11, which is a little too optimistic to consider the bottoming pattern to have yet completed. But its next dip under 128-28 should end the selling pressure.

Crude Oil
Feb Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Monday's dip to 93.35 expended as much selling pressure as possible while still being considered only a pullback, requiring some immediate proof of momentum reversing upward to avoid a more substantial decline.

Natural Gas
Friday's bounce attempt didn't repeat Monday, but fresh lows were avoided so the larger potential head-and-shoulders pattern did not trigger.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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