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Crude Oil Was Suspiciously Quiet Friday


Its relentless firming disappeared when other markets heated up. Here's what it means.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Crude oil has been an anomaly recently. Ticking higher relentlessly finally found a corrective dip or hesitation Friday, just as other markets were increasing their volatility. Is that turbulence a sign of approaching its target?

Dollar Basket
Thursday's drop probed lower overnight, but held 80.50 support intraday Friday. That doesn't prevent extending down further, especially since 80.50's test hasn't reacted up. But not extending down early Monday would be likely to start firming back up to Wednesday's 81.30 close.

Mar Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Friday highs Thursday night were retraced before Friday's open, but not reversed much back into Thursday's range. The overnight highs may yet be retested, although that is not required. But any delay in their retest would more likely start dropping back down to Wednesday's 1.3540 close.

Feb Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Thursday's rally extended sharply higher overnight to fulfill its 1270.00 target up to 1273.20. Friday's intraday action also tested 1270.00 before retracing down to 1260.00. The rally's momentum remains intact so long as 1259.00 holds as support.

Mar Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Friday's gap up to 20.20 ranged there narrowly through mid-morning before reversing down sharply to plunge through the 19.95 pullback limit to attack 19.70 support. Back above 19.95 without delay Monday would be credible for extending higher intraday, but there is otherwise no active buy signal.

30-year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Thursday's rally extended higher overnight to touch 133-05. Friday's open gapped up and the entire session was spent in positive territory, but the overnight high was never retested. The resulting symmetrical triangle has upside resistance at 133-16 whose test would be vulnerable to reversing down sharply. Pullbacks meanwhile have room down to 133-12.

Crude Oil
Mar Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Friday's dip to 96.25 consolidated through the afternoon, forming a pattern that can easily break higher to fulfill the 98.85 target.

Natural Gas
Thursday's pre-open 4.94 high had stopped pessimistically short of touching the 4.97 target. It was probed Friday night on the way to trending sharply higher intraday, testing 5.25. That represents the high of fulfilling the 4.97 target, so any higher close would signal the rally was extending much higher. Otherwise, closing back under 4.97 would at least signal a corrective phase underway.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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