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Natural Gas Pop Might Be Refueling Sellers

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Last week's head-and-shoulders break hadn't yet met its target.

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The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Natural gas had broken lower last week from a massive head-and-shoulders pattern. Monday's big bounce threatens to reverse momentum back up prematurely. Possibly. That, or the more likely scenario that the bounce is refueling sellers for a bigger downleg.

Dollar Basket
Mar Contract DX; (NYSEARCA:UUP), (NYSEARCA:UDN)
Narrow ranging Monday failed to offer any new parameters. Trending early Tuesday would be less credible.

Eurodollar
Mar Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Monday morning's dip confirmed that buyers had gained no traction for Friday's fresh high that had held the noise range around prior highs. But momentum hasn't reversed back down, and there is no active signal.

Gold
Feb Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Overnight strength to 1255.00 was corrected Monday morning, but recovered into the afternoon. The rally's momentum now remains intact so long as 1246.00 holds as support.

Silver
Mar Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Fresh highs were slow to materialize Monday, but eventually followed gold up, and then outperformed it by probing overnight highs testing 20.45.

30-year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Hardly any hesitation interrupted last week's recovery from extending higher Monday, testing 131-08. A second-consecutive higher close Monday would require there to be a third, and probably a test of 131-28.

Crude Oil
Feb Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
More selling Sunday night and Monday confirmed that Friday's bounce was only corrective, and that targets remain outstanding back into the 90.50-91.25 range, which was being attacked Monday afternoon.

Natural Gas
Jan Contract NG; (NYSEARCA:UNG), (NYSEARCA:UNL)
Monday morning's steep surge tested the head-and-shoulders pattern's 4.22 neckline as resistance. A 61.8% retracement of the one-week drop from 4.43 is 4.26, with room for noise around it up to 4.36 before signaling a new upleg is underway. Closing Monday back under 4.11 would have been optimal for confirming the pattern's 3.87 target remains intact. A second-consecutive higher close Tuesday would start to be bullish.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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