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Crude Oil's Pullback May Be Complete


The affect of NFP on currencies could ripple into energies.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Thursday's BOE and ECB announcements shook up things that Friday's Employment Situation report will either reinforce or contradict. Either would be predictive, at this stage, of much of the coverage. But the most credible would be improvement in crude oil, which may have completed a corrective dip.

Dollar Basket
The reaction to Thursday morning's BOE and ECB statements triggered an early dip that probed the decline's previously tested 79.80 target down to 79.60. A second consecutive lower close would signal a much larger downleg underway. Closing Friday back above 79.80 would help to begin forming a bottom.

Mar Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Thursday's reaction to the BOE and ECB statements surged to fresh highs retesting the Island. Not closing back under at least 1.3800 now allows a second consecutive higher close Friday to signal a much larger rally underway, instead of forming a more durable top.

Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
The 1349.00 target was retested Thursday, but not rejected. Its peak stopped short of probing the 1355.00 high, so the pattern is vulnerable to reacting either way on Friday's Employment Situation report. A second consecutive higher close Friday would signal a much bigger upleg underway targeting 1378.50 and potentially 1399.00. Closing back under 1333.00 would start to signal a new downleg underway.

May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Thursday's bounce attacked the 21.75 limit whose recovery must be avoided to maintain the pullback's potential to test 20.75 as support.

30-Year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Not exploiting Wednesday's bounce from Tuesday's dip to 132-08 support left the door open for Thursday to gap down and test the next lower support at 131-24. The next lower support is 131-06, and if tested in reaction to Friday's Employment Situation report, would be likely to launch a significant intraday rally. Otherwise, the next available buy signal would be back above 132-10.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
The pullback's target of 100.00 (+/- 15 cents) was barely pierced by 2 cents at Thursday's low. Recovering 101.85 and 102.45 would signal and confirm momentum reversing to retest the highs back up to 105.00.

Natural Gas
Thursday's rally back up to Tuesday's highs proved that Wednesday's dip was weak-handed, but stopped short of triggering a new rally leg underway above 4.65, which was still being tested into the close.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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