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Will Gold's Momentum Surge Through the Weekend, Too?


Surging back up to resistance before two days of illiquidity gives the rally momentum.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Friday's sudden, steep, and substantial moves among currencies and precious metals suggest that corrections have ended and that trending is now underway. Follow-through after the weekend is difficult, so it would be that much more meaningful to extend.

Dollar Basket
Friday's higher highs continue to signal a low has formed and that momentum is reversing up, but that must be confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Monday to improve the signal's reliability.

Mar Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Thursday's bounce off of 1.3580 support didn't prevent Friday's open from gapping down below it. That's still one day too late to confirm Wednesday's plunge, but now Friday's breakout is in need of a second consecutive lower close Monday. That doesn't happen often in this four-day sequence. Probing fresh lows intraday Monday is likely, regardless.

Feb Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Avoiding a new downleg required surging Friday. The open did surge through its 1248.50 buy signal and eventually probed the prior high while testing 1254.50. The nearest pullback limit is 1248.50, but there need be no pullback before extending further to the 1270.00 target.

Mar Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Friday morning's rally surged through the recently filled 20.25 gap to test 20.40 resistance. So long as 20.25 holds as support, fresh highs have potential up to 20.70.

30-year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Friday's opening blip-up was reversed into negative territory, but only temporarily before recovering back to fresh highs testing 131-10. The pattern's minimum requirement need not be limited to only a third higher close.

Crude Oil
Feb Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Thursday night's rally to fresh highs attacked 25.00, which still didn't allow a buy signal to be generated. Its immediate reaction down explained why, as the morning fell back under Thursday's highs. But a close under 23.65 is still needed to signal that fresh lows are in play.

Natural Gas
The two-day probing above 4.34 was considerable, but Friday's rejection was not. The session did range exclusively in negative territory, but has yet to trend down.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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