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Will Gold See Another Double-Digit Slide?


Gold is at a critical point; either a more durable bottom will form, or else the decline will extend considerably.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Gold's double-digit plunge Monday behaved like a surprise, but only confirmed that last week's one-day surge was not sponsored by strong hands. Its retracement isn't yet complete, and might require another double-digit slide Tuesday. But this is a critical point that either forms a more durable bottom, or else extends the decline considerably.

Dollar Basket
Monday's gap down didn't extend and only ranged narrowly sideways, but a close back above 81.05 is still needed to signal that momentum has reversed back up.

Dec Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Not surging higher at Monday's open kept the bounce likely to retrace. Monday's gap up was retraced back into Friday's range, but now a close back under 1.3470 is still needed to signal momentum has reversed down.

Dec Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Thursday's false break finished being retraced entirely Monday as the session's double-digit plunge nearly filled the gap back to last Wednesday's 1268.50 close. So long as 1274.50 isn't recovered, extending the drop under 1265.00 would target 1254.00.

Dec Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Not having recovered 20.70, the bounce remained vulnerable to ending. Having retested Wednesday's 20.40 low on Monday, the question is whether a Double Bottom is forming, or if the decline is extending. Back above 20.50 would suggest the low's retest had held, so long as the recovery were aggressive.

30-Year Treasury
Dec Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Monday's bounce to 133-06 stopped short of its potential to 133-13 or 133-21 before completing the false break higher. Back under 132-16 would start to signal momentum was already reversing down to retest the recent low.

Crude Oil
Oct Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Still no early strength Monday to suggest a recovery is underway. Instead, the decline's 92.85 target was retested. Closing back above the 94.60 buy signal is now more difficult, although early strength back above 94.10 would start to tilt momentum upward.

Natural Gas
There being no further room for a corrective bounce to extend higher, Monday's open nevertheless gapped up above Friday's highs. Price action ranged sideways, and then reversed back down to retrace almost all of Friday's rally. There is no bearish reason to further delay extending down for the low's retest. Closing almost any higher Tuesday would suggest that Monday's dip was only a temporary correction, and that a bigger rally is underway.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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