Sorry!! The article you are trying to read is not available now.
Thank you very much;
you're only a step away from
downloading your reports.

The Motto of the Crude Oil Bulls: Try, Try Again


The test, retest, and re-retest of resistance might have failed because of timing. We'll know on Monday.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Crude oil wants to rally. Its downleg met its target. Its buy signal triggered. And its confirmation has been probed. And probed. And probed. Perhaps closing above it is being delayed until after the weekend. Otherwise, retesting the lows, anyone?

Dollar Basket
Friday's weakness was shallow, and only touched 80.20, also holding a test of Wednesday's spike high. That's probably not the pullback's low, now that Thursday's higher close already confirmed the rally. But closing back above 80.20 after dipping lower Monday morning would be bullish.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Firming Friday is allowable in the bearish scenario after two consecutive lower closes already confirmed the decline's momentum. Closing lower would be optimal, especially if the morning were to have probed above Friday's highs.

Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Finally met a support it liked Friday, at 1330.50. Back above 1333.00 extended to test 1342.00 resistance, then holding 1336.00 as support. Back above 1342.00 Monday would target 1349.00.

May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Narrow sideways ranging did not reject Thursday's break under 20.70, nor did it test "higher prior lows" so that retesting Thursday's open could neutralize its attraction. The lack of volatility suggests waiting for better signals.

30-Year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Initial weakness Friday quickly recovered, much like Thursday's open, except that Friday then extended higher intraday. Touching 132-22, which was a low on the way down, does suggest that Friday's high will be exceeded at some point -- probably Monday -- before being vulnerable to resuming the decline.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Returning back to the 99.50 confirmation level overnight Friday helped to dismiss Thursday's reaction down from its retest. Closing above 100.00 would now offer additional confirmation that momentum has reversed up -- preferably recovering 100.00 immediately Monday since Friday was still testing 99.50 through the close. Next significant resistance would be 102.35, targeting 104.65.

Natural Gas
Rejecting Tuesday's gap up was due more reward than just to touch last week's lows on Thursday. Overnight action easily probed lower, extending into Friday.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Featured Videos