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Contrarians Cowering Over Weak Gold, Weak Bonds, and Flat Crude Oil


Uh-oh -- three gauges of fear aren't very fearful into the weekend.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Gold's drop into the long weekend suggests a lack of tension. So does crude oil's bounce, which held both recent highs and the target of its current rally leg. Meanwhile, the long bond tumbled from lofty levels that had been in met in a flight-to-safety.

Dollar Basket
Thursday's initial bounce didn't get very far before dipping back to unchanged; still likely to break falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Consolidation around 1.3800 support had gone nowhere, making a bounce back to 1.3900 likelier. Thursday's initial bounce didn't get too far before proving it wasn't that attempt.

Jun Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Thursday's dip attacked 1292.00 to suggest that the bounce had ended, and that momentum is reversing down, which is credible so long as it's not recovered Monday.

May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Narrow ranging Thursday didn't resume the decline but still avoided recovering, no doubt hampered by gold retracing its bounce from fresh lows.

30-Year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Thursday's drop broke under the 133-28 pullback limit to signal the launch of a new downleg, which should now hold any test of 134-06 as resistance.

Crude Oil
May Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Retesting recent highs Thursday helps to confirm that it was otherwise premature to sell weakness, but now the pattern would be vulnerable to reversing down back under 102.60.

Natural Gas
Only a little more weakness preceded Thursday's spike up in reaction to the day's EIA report. That's premature to have confidence in a new upleg under way, but there is no signal in play.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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