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Recently Rising Interest Rates May Be Topping


The long bond's fresh low Tuesday fulfilled a pullback target.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Tuesday's price action mostly only extended existing trends among coverage. But all show signs of their sponsorship weakening, making them vulnerable to reversing altogether Wednesday.

Dollar Basket
Fresh lows Tuesday ultimately only ranged choppily around prior lows, never extending down despite gapping down and spending the entire session in negative territory. Almost any initial strength Wednesday would be credible for extending sharply higher intraday.

Mar Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Tuesday's gap up was modest, but it extended. At least, it extended temporarily before being retraced to almost unchanged. The extension repeated into the noon hour, and dipped again -- but always in positive territory. The "ineffectual optimism" probed the prior high, as was likely. Not extending higher immediately Wednesday would very likely have formed a top.

Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Fresh highs Tuesday tested 1295.00. The second consecutive higher close now requires there to be a third, albeit not necessarily immediately. A corrective dip to as low as 1270.00 still wouldn't reverse momentum down.

Mar Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Firm ranging Tuesday was nevertheless contained within last Wednesday's range, and largely within Monday's range, too. The coiled-up buying pressure can't tolerate dipping first to fresh lows.

30-year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Tuesday's fresh low fulfilled a corrective pattern whose recovery would be triggered back above 133-00. Its minimum objective would be 133-16, but extending any higher would target fresh highs.

Crude Oil
Mar Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Monday's test of the 100.40 target wasn't rejected back under the 99.40 pullback limit, and neither did the rally extend through it. Price action continued ranging there narrowly, with potential for extending up to 102.00 so long as 99.40 held as support.

Natural Gas
Reminiscent of last month's break from its massive head-and-shoulders pattern, Monday's fresh low was retraced to test what is now 4.77 resistance Tuesday. But this pattern hasn't yet reversed back up. No second consecutive new low close does undermine the drop's momentum, but potential down to 4.35-4.40 remains intact so long as 4.85 isn't recovered.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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