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Natural Gas Rally Has a Tight Schedule to Keep


On-again, off-again gains should take a higher profile now, if the rally is valid.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Having rested on its laurels Friday, the natural gas rally should not be further delayed past Monday if it is valid.

Dollar Basket
Very flat narrow ranging Friday was biased downward, still contained within Wednesday's range. Compressing selling pressure without breaking lower makes a snap up to fresh highs likely.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Friday's narrow ranging held 1.2955 resistance. The decline must resume without much further delay to avoid a bigger bounce targeting 1.3100.

Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Ranging narrowly above and around 1383.00 has validated the level's relevance, but neutralized its predictive value. The next durable trend should begin by reacting to a false break, probably from testing 1398.50.

May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Friday's session wasn't required to resume trending either way, but its timing does suggest the next trending attempt will be false.

30-Year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Ranging at recent lows into the weekend without yet rejecting the recent drop - and without probing fresh lows intraday - makes any immediate bounce more capable of extending higher, especially if 144-24 were recovered early.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Recovering Friday's gap down to gravitate back around 94.00 doesn't make a rally any likelier to develop. Dipping back under 93.00 would be very vulnerable to extending down intraday.

Natural Gas
Having extended the rally Thursday, Friday's session was not obligated to rally any further, and it did not. But now having taken advantage of the opportunity to rest, the rally does need to resume Monday if it is valid.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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