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Natural Gas Basing Ahead of Thursday's EIA Report


Corrective rally or recovery? Either way there is potential for a surge.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Natural gas has been creeping upward, poised at resistance for Thursday's EIA report to launch a new rally leg.

Dollar Basket
Ranging narrowly Wednesday produced an inside day that doesn't yet signal trending, while making an attempt to extend down likely to recover and possibly reverse the trend back up.

Sep Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
The extended pullback did not react up Wednesday, and only ranged narrowly sideways. Still no signal until a rally effort fails.

Oct Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Tuesday's dip was largely retraced Wednesday, at least to probe back above the 1330.50 pullback limit which had failed to hold Tuesday. Back above 1339.00 would signal the rally had resumed.

Sep Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Fresh highs Wednesday probed above the rally's 21.50 target that had been fulfilled Tuesday, further testing "higher prior lows" above 21.80. There is room up to 22.00 before dipping back under 21.50 would signal momentum reversing down.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Gapping down so sharply Tuesday was a shock to the system that Wednesday's sideways ranging spent time absorbing. The inside day did not reverse momentum, which should resume its decline without much further delay.

Crude Oil
Sep Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Thursday's firming back up through 106.50 to test 107.00 has little reason to further delay launching an obvious rally leg. Pullbacks meanwhile should recover aggressively from any probe under 106.00.

Natural Gas
Price continued firming Wednesday, testing the 3.36 resistance whose recovery would launch a new upleg.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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