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Long Bond's FOMC Rally May Be Premature


Reacting up from the decline's target isn't necessarily strength.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: The long bond fulfilled its target below just before the FOMC news. Was the reaction up excessively optimistic?

Dollar Basket
Trending had resumed already prior to Wednesday afternoon's FOMC statement, which extended the trending.

Sep Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Trending had resumed already prior to Wednesday afternoon's FOMC statement, which extended the trending to fulfill the 1.3333 target.

Aug Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Despite surging overnight through the 1330.00 buy signal to 1338.00, Wednesday morning's drop probed under the 1319.00-1320.00 and 1312.50 sell signals, which was a somewhat surprising reversal. A post-close bounce in reaction to the FOMC statement probed back above 1330.00.

Sep Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Wednesday's dip to 19.35 filled an outstanding gap before firming into the close, and then surging to 20.00 in reaction to the FOMC statement.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Tuesday's narrow ranging was too timid to be considered defensive posturing ahead of Wednesday's FOMC news. Wednesday morning's plunge fulfilled the outstanding 132-24 target and did a better job at discounting ahead of Wednesday's FOMC news. The reaction up was a little optimistic, already filling the gap back to Tuesday's 134-00 area close.

Crude Oil
Sep Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Wednesday's rally from under 103.00 to above 105.00 avoided a second consecutive confirming close after Tuesday's breakout. But it also expended buying pressure prematurely when it could not gain traction for its efforts. Tuesday's 103.59 gap down under all prior lows must be retested from above to at least seal a bottom, if not to resume the decline.

Natural Gas
Still no signs of the market disagreeing with its recent break to fresh lows. Thursday's EIA probably won't clarify things. A probe back above "higher prior lows" must still be retraced back to the Monday's opening gap down, whether to form a bottom or to extend lower.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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