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Long Bond Touched Its Next Lower Target

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The long bond's reaction up isn't yet high enough to signal momentum reversing up.

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The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Tapering, Bernanke, and minutes - in other words, all things FOMC - created a lot of volatility Wednesday. No matter how wide, it was not arbitrary, as relevant price levels continue influencing intraday price action. Most notable is that the long bond's new low bounced from touching its target, but not high enough to reverse momentum up.

Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (NYSEARCA:UUP), (NYSEARCA:UDN)
Wednesday's dip to 83.50 was recovered back to the recent 84.50 high, but not through it, and not enough to trigger the 84.45 buy signal without probing higher Thursday.

Eurodollar
Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Wednesday morning's bounce up to 1.2955 resistance was exceeded all the way up to 1.3000, but only momentarily before reversing down sharply on the day to 1.2840. The 1.2745 target is in-play, especially if confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Thursday.

Gold
Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Tuesday's lows tested what had been Monday morning's 1357.70 bounce limit. Wednesday's recovery probed 1400.00 resistance, and failed from 1414.00. The reaction down probed 1357.70, whose break would now target 1344.00 and then new lows.

Silver
May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Another test of the 23.25 buy signal failed again Wednesday. The unfinished business below at Monday's gap down does undermine any near-term recovery attempts.

30-year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Another test of the 144-24 buy signal failed again Wednesday, producing a drop to new lows at the 142-19 target. Its bounce to 143-10 stopped short of reversing momentum up, which would be triggered by closing back above 143-30.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Rather than accelerate higher above 96.00, it was probed below again, putting into play an attack on 94.00 that was fulfilled intraday by testing 94.20. An actual touch of 94.00 should be avoided to allow a credible rally effort Thursday morning.

Natural Gas
Apr Contract NG; (NYSEARCA:UNG), (NYSEARCA:UNL)
Wednesday's narrow range consolidated Tuesday's recovery above 4.16. But the rally cannot tolerate much more delay in extending higher.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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