Sorry!! The article you are trying to read is not available now.
Thank you very much;
you're only a step away from
downloading your reports.

Long Bond Posturing Ahead of FOMC Statement

By

Is it digging in resolutely, or just ducking anxiously?

PrintPRINT
The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: The long bond's inability to sustain upside momentum could be defensive posturing ahead of Wednesday's FOMC policy statement. But its unfinished business below suggests either a negative reaction, or else that a negative resolution will follow.

Dollar Basket
Sep Contract DX; (NYSEARCA:UUP), (NYSEARCA:UDN)
Tuesday's bounce back up to 82.10 stopped short of the 82.20 bounce limit. But the decline probably cannot afford to hesitate resuming if its momentum remains intact.

Eurodollar
Sep Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Difficulty upon testing 1.3300 resistance Tuesday reacted down and ranged narrowly sideways. Now pullbacks must hold 1.3225 to maintain the rally's momentum next targeting 1.3330.

Gold
Aug Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Another dip down to 1319.00-1320.00 tried to reverse momentum down Tuesday. Monday's bounce was probably too shallow for sellers to be refueled yet. But breaking lower would get every benefit of the doubt if confirmed by a second consecutive lower close under 1612.50. Back above 1330.00 should have little reason to further delay launching a new rally leg.

Silver
Sep Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Monday's reaction down from gapping up had stopped optimistically short of actually filling the gap back to its open. That optimism was potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective. Tuesday's gap down confirmed as much, although the balance of the session only ranged narrowly around 19.65 prior lows. Back above 20.00 would resume the rally, and avoid extending down to 18.88.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Monday's reaction down from retesting 135-00 resistance had bounced off of 133-26. Tuesday's narrow ranging retested the low, not invalidating that the 132-24 gap is in-play.

Crude Oil
Sep Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Further delaying a recovery back above 106.00 all but confirmed that support had been chipped away. Tuesday's break to fresh lows probing under 103.00 should extend to 99.00 so long as Wednesday were to confirm with a second consecutive lower close.

Natural Gas
Aug Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:UNG), (NYSEARCA:UNL)
Monday's break was not rejected immediately even to try forming an island reversal. A probe of "higher prior lows" up to 3.55-3.60 would likely reverse down to retest the lows.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
< Previous
  • 1
Next >
No positions in stocks mentioned.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
PrintPRINT
 
Featured Videos

WHAT'S POPULAR IN THE VILLE