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Is the Crude Oil Rally Already Underway?


We are starting to see probes above resistance that aren't being rejected.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Crude oil's rally seems to be resuming right on schedule. Settling higher through Wednesday's EIA report should confirm fresh highs are in play.

Dollar Basket
The recovery didn't hesitate before extending higher Tuesday, now creating a second gap outstanding below. The extra rally session also creates more room to absorb selling pressure without it gaining traction to become a new downleg.

Sep Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Not resuming the rally without delay makes it likely to have ended. Tuesday's drop to fresh lows suggests as much, but still doesn't signal that momentum has actually reversed down. The next bounce should fail and become a new downleg.

Oct Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
The 1330.50 pullback limit was probed deeply in Tuesday's test of 1320.00. The rally's momentum is in jeopardy if not resumed by Wednesday's close.

Sep Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Tuesday's session barely budged as Monday's surge was consolidated less than $0.20 under the 21.50 target.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Extending at all above Monday's test of 135-00 would have signaled a much more substantial detour higher before probing fresh lows. Tuesday's open gapped down sharply and tested 132-12. That leaves outstanding a gap up to Monday's 134-04 close that can attract price back up after new lows fulfill 131-06.

Crude Oil
Sep Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Fresh highs overnight up to 107.20 still pulled back for a little more consolidation through Tuesday morning. After that was fulfilled, the afternoon firmed back up above 106.50. The rally should resume without delay.

Natural Gas
Tuesday's dip held 3.26, and back above 3.36 would be credible for launching a new upleg.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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