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Is Gold Resuming Its Drop to New Lows?


One more lower close for the yellow metal could be irrecoverable.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Gold's tumble Tuesday suggests that new lows are not too far away.

Dollar Basket
Tuesday afternoon's fresh low followed the morning's recovery attempt. Back above 81.00 would signal another recovery attempt underway.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Tuesday's fresh highs testing 1.3425 can't afford to hesitate extending higher, and must extend higher aggressively, or else back under 1.3355 would signal momentum reversing down.

Aug Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Tuesday's break initially tested 1373.00-1377.00, but then extended down sharply to fresh lows testing 1360.00. The decline is targeting 1351.00, so long as bounces now hold 1368.50.

Jul Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Tuesday's mid-morning drop attacked prior lows down to 21.45 before bouncing. The low was too shallow to serve as the bottom, and the bounce was too shallow to reject it.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
The reaction down from 140-25 extended to 138-28 Tuesday, retracing 61.8% of the rally from last week's lows., then bouncing to 139-26. Trending any higher should be done aggressively to form a new upleg targeting 142-04. Otherwise, back under 138-24 would target a retest of last week's 137-25 low.

Crude Oil
Jul Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Retesting the 98.10 target attacked Sunday night's 98.70 high, yet extended higher. But not yet reversing down makes fresh highs likely before any durable reversal down could gain traction.

Natural Gas
Tuesday extended higher early to help confirm Monday's probe above last week's 3.85 high intended to confirm with a second consecutive higher close. It extended to 3.95, and reversed it all. Closing above 3.90 gives the rally a benefit of the doubt for now targeting 4.00 so long as pullbacks hold 3.83 as support.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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