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Is Crude Oil Ready to Roll Over?


Monday morning's dip may have been a warning shot across the bow.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Is crude oil ready to roll over? Monday's attempt was cut short, but only so that an attraction above could be neutralized. That action often precedes a serious trending attempt.

Dollar Basket
Monday's inside day and narrow ranging around 80.05-80.10 doesn't confirm that the recent bounce has gained any durable traction. A dip to 79.35-79.75 should precede a reliable recovery leg at this stage.

Dec Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Monday's inside day did not confirm Friday's break lower, which otherwise held the expected test of "lower prior highs." Tuesday should fulfill or begin fulfilling that pattern's subsequent expectations for attacking recent highs at 1.3625 or up to 1.3670.

Dec Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Monday's probe above the 1306.00-1321.00 range's upper-end fulfilled expectations that resistance had been chipped away enough for an obligatory probe above it. But it has stretched the rubber band to where it will either break higher with a second consecutive higher close Tuesday, or else react down sharply back to and through 1306.00.

Dec Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Repeatedly chipping away at 21.88-21.95 resistance was finally rewarded by Monday's gap up through it that extended higher intraday to attack 22.50. The resolution to testing 21.88-21.95 as support would dictate the next substantial trend.

30-Year Treasury
Dec Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Gapping up slightly Monday keeps alive the pattern's requirement for at least one more fresh high close, especially so long as 132-22 continues holding as support.

Crude Oil
Oct Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Monday's gap down probed under 102.30 (and under 102.00) was retraced enough to fill the gap back to Friday's 103.68 close. Having neutralized its attraction above, closing under 102.30 would be likely to extend down without delay to fulfill the 99.10 target.

Natural Gas
Last Tuesday's gap up and extension through 3.59 was the pattern's last buy signal. It wasn't confirmed the following day, and now the interim dip has recovered to gap up Monday and extend through 3.59 again. A second consecutive higher close Tuesday is still needed for confirmation.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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