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Is Crude Oil Ready to Resume Its Rally?


The correction from Tuesday night's surge should have ended Friday, unless a new downleg has begun.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Has crude oil completed its correction from the pre-war surge?

Dollar Basket
Extending to fresh highs Friday confirmed Thursday's breakout, putting into play 83.10 so long as 81.85 holds as support.

Sep Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Extending sharply lower Friday confirmed Thursday's breakout, putting into play 1.304 so long as 1.3265 holds as resistance.

Oct Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Despite 1405.50 having held its test as support Thursday, lower lows overnight and Friday morning tested 1491.50. A reaction up held 1405.50 as resistance, needing to recover it for another probe above 1420.00 to be in play.

Dec Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Wednesday's key reversal had fulfilled its minimum objectives Thursday, but extended down further Friday. Closing back above 24.10 would signal the pullback was resolving up to probe back above 25.00.

30-Year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Friday's ranging held a retest of Thursday's highs. But not yet resuming the decline does keep the door open to extending the interim bounce. Closing back under 132-10 and 131-30 would still resume the decline.

Crude Oil
Oct Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
The pullback extended lower Thursday night to 106.75, which was attacked Friday morning. A probe above 110.65 would be in play back above 108.75.

Natural Gas
Thursday's recovery did not extend higher Friday. Neither was it rejected, so any early strength above 3.64 Monday would still be credible for extending higher through the day.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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