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How Quickly Can Natural Gas Fulfill Its Downside Targets?


The sooner, the better; this would leave more time for natural gas to rally sharply.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: The faster natural gas can neutralize its attractions below at new lows, the greater its potential for ending the week sharply higher.

Dollar Basket
Friday's opening strength was reversed to probe another fresh low, which is much more credible than Thursday's low. Currencies tend to duplicate Friday's bias on Monday mornings. The restrained selling pressure into the weekend suggests that resuming it coming out of the weekend would be aggressive.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Still ranging around 1.3333 resistance for so long again suggests at least an obligatory probe of fresh highs, perhaps only that.

Aug Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Thursday's drop back down to 1377.00 was retraced to test 1385.00-1390.00 resistance. The drop must resume immediately for the pattern to remain bearish. A bullish resolution here would likely gap up above 1393.50 and extend higher.

Jul Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Having neutralized the attraction below 21.60 Thursday, Friday's close above 21.80 is trying to seal a bottom. The open actually gapped to 21.80, creating a gap below at Thursday's close, which does undermine the recovery attempt. It must extend higher immediately if valid.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
The detour targeting 140-24 had developed already overnight, but extending higher intraday to 140-28 was still retraced down to 140-10, and lower. Back under 139-22 would start to signal a retest of the lows underway.

Crude Oil
Jul Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
The rally extended to finally fulfill its long outstanding 98.10 objective. Momentum remains intact to extend higher so long as any pullback Monday morning is short and shallow.

Natural Gas
Thursday's neutralized attractions above rejected price back down sharply Friday by gapping through 3.77, attacking recent lows down to 3.72, presumably on the way to 3.55-3.60.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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