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Has the Long Bond Ended a Corrective Bounce?


Almost any delay in resuming the drop would be bullish.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Did the long bond's bounce into Thursday's auction trap all available longs? Not if Thursday's high is exceeded into the weekend.

Dollar Basket
82.15 was recovered very quickly Thursday morning, on the way to 82.40, whose recovery would reinstate momentum targeting 82.80.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Thursday's gap down back under 1.3150 extended to 1.3105, which held tests as support. Its break would renew the decline.

Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Gapping down Thursday all but rejected Wednesday's close above 1467.50, which the balance of the session ranged around. Closing under its 1458.80 low would still signal a bigger slide underway targeting 1429.50.

May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Thursday's narrow ranging offered no new signal.

30-Year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Thursday's gap up immediately tested the 147-02 bounce limit. Its dip back into negative territory was recovered to fresh highs at 147-12 on the auction results. Its reaction down struggled to hold positive territory, while the bounce limit did hold. Any valid resumption of the decline targeting 144-28 should still be at an accelerated pace.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Gapping down back to and through 96.00 undermines the rally's momentum, and its 98.10 target.

Natural Gas
Fresh lows on Thursday's EIA report were recovered back up through the 3.95-4.00 area, which was still being tested through the afternoon. Extending back above it through 4.05 would target 4.16.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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