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Has Gold Really Resumed Its Rally?


Monday's bounce may be premature.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Stocks in turmoil may be affecting other markets more than stocks are being affected by them. Bonds extending their rally, currencies checking their recent moves....There is no sign of volatility waning.

Dollar Basket
An attraction above was left outstanding by Monday's dip, which should remain under pressure no later than Tuesday's noon hour before resuming its rally back above 81.25.

Mar Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Firming Monday allowed the recent decline to refuel, while leaving unfinished business outstanding below - i.e. at least a third lower close to reward two consecutive lower closes.

Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Monday morning's bounce attacked 1270.00 to within $4. Regardless of the initial bullish behavior probing above 1246.00-1248.50 resistance, a second consecutive higher close is needed to confirm that 1240.00 held, and that it does not need to be probed down to 1226.00. Meanwhile, back under 1253.00 would start to signal momentum already reversing back down.

Mar Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Monday's bounce barely even attacked 19.70, let alone tested it. This leaves downward momentum intact if Tuesday's open doesn't extend higher almost immediately. The gap back to Friday's close is already creating an attraction below.

30-year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Friday's gap up to new highs wasn't considered bearish for not extending higher intraday. It extended sharply higher Monday to attack 133-30 on more flight-to-safety amid stocks falling further. A second consecutive higher close would require there to be at least a third eventually.

Crude Oil
Mar Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Reacting down from the rally's 98.55 target Friday extended lower Monday. The reversal hasn't been so productive that a fresh high can't retest 98.55 to form a more durable top.

Natural Gas
Friday's test of the 4.77-4.85 pullback limit was likely to be duplicated to some degree Monday. And it was, barely, before firming on forecasts of another nationwide cold snap. A bottom to this pullback is not yet convincing, but there is no sell signal.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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