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Has Crude Oil Fallen Closer to a Bottom?


Crude oil still has the potential to lead a commodity rally.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: So much for crude oil leading a commodity recovery? Not necessarily. While Thursday's drop did extend Friday, at least sellers were dispatched. Meanwhile, other markets only firmed, expending buying pressure without gaining traction for the effort.

Dollar Basket
The rally's 82.75 target was attacked up to 82.70 Friday. The second consecutive lower close under prior lows confirms momentum reversed down. Pullbacks should now hold 82.10 to maintain the rally.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Friday's dip to 1.3105 now requires bounces to hold any test of 1.3220 to maintain this downleg's momentum.

Aug Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Thursday night's test of 1269.00 was recovered to attack 1302.00. Narrow intraday ranging around 1290.00 suggests that a recovery is not forming. A fresh low at 1262.00 can't be discounted. But back above 1308.00 would target 1321.50.

Jul Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
The 19.37 target was tested Thursday night, producing a bounce testing 20.05. And it could extend to 20.20 before suggesting a bottom has formed, or that fresh lows targeting 18.88-19.00 can be avoided.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
The 136-30 bounce limit was attacked to within a quarter-point Thursday night and by Friday's opening gap up. But selling resumed immediately and extended the decline to 134-29. Now holding 135-24 would maintain the drop's momentum and potential down to 134-16 and 133-24.

Crude Oil
Jul Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Friday's drop to attack 93.00 extended Thursday's steep break from recently testing 99.00. Back above 96.00 would still start signaling new highs in-play, and back above 95.20 would target 96.00.

Natural Gas
The pullback extended down Friday, testing 3.80, and now needs a close above 3.87 to signal momentum reversing up.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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