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Gold's Wild Intraday Ride Completely In Line With Pattern


The pattern predicted fresh lows and their recovery, although the timing is still suspect.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Questions had been raised about gold rallying sharply from new lows intraday ahead of Wednesday's FOMC news. But the pattern Tuesday expected almost exactly that, probing new lows intraday, and rejecting them aggressively by the close. The timing is curious, but the pattern followed its price prediction perfectly.

Dollar Basket
FOMC news drove price down sharply from recently trying to hold its 81.45 pullback limit.

Sep Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Two days of testing the 1.3333 pullback limit probably helped the dip to resolve up sharply in reaction to FOMC, although breaking any lower would have been equally vulnerable to sliding.

Dec Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
The requirement to probe fresh lows before rallying was fulfilled Wednesday morning down to 1291.50. A rally into the FOMC statement was attacking the 1321.00 buy signal to within $3, and then extended sharply up to 1350.50. Since that all followed Wednesday's close, closing Thursday above 1341.00 would confirm momentum has reversed up, next targeting 1363.00 and potentially 1377.00-1381.00.

Dec Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Wednesday morning's slide to fresh lows at 21.22 fulfilled the first stage of the complex descending triangle that had formed. An immediate reaction up through its 22.40 high fulfilled the pattern's second stage. Pullbacks should hold 22.10 as support and produce a second consecutive higher close Thursday if momentum has reversed up.

30-year Treasury
Dec Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Wednesday morning's weakness down to 129-20 was retraced back above 130-00, for the FOMC news to trigger a surge through 132-00. Pullbacks should now hold 131-02 if a bottom has formed.

Crude Oil
Oct Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Tuesday's dip to 105.00 required an immediate recovery back above 106.75, which was accomplished before FOMC news extended the recovery through 108.25. A second consecutive higher close -- which is not at all assured in this pattern -- would put into play fresh highs well above 110.65, if not also above 112.25.

Natural Gas
Wednesday's drop to 3.67 recovered only enough to attack 3.72, which was not enough to reinstate the rally's momentum. As defensive posturing ahead of Thursday's EIA report, the action would be bullish. But the rally can't tolerate a lower low at this stage.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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