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Gold's Sense of Calm Is Deceptive


The yellow metal's narrow range drew a line in the sand to hold back more selling.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Gold's behavior Wednesday felt like the market was waiting for the other shoe to drop. Ranging narrowly at the bottom of a steep, deep plunge isn't usually the sign of strength it pretends to be.

Dollar Basket
Tuesday's opening blip-up did not gain traction, allowing Wednesday to extend the drop and test 81.45 support. Lower lows Thursday should recover to close positive if a recovery can get underway anytime soon.

Sep Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Wednesday's high attacked 1.3333, which can be probed up to 1.3380 before ending the corrective bounce. RSIs diverged negatively into Wednesday's rally, so almost hesitation to extend the rally would be vulnerable to resuming the decline.

Dec Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Fresh lows overnight probed recent lows down to 1356.00. But Wednesday's intraday action only ranged narrowly around unchanged. The 1377.00 buy signal was not challenged.

Dec Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Wednesday's narrow ranging did not reject the recent drop, which is much likelier to resume if the 23.55 buy signal is not triggered by Thursday's close.

30-year Treasury
Dec Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Ranging between 128-20/129-14 Wednesday probably only delayed the expected drop to new lows. But it does not prevent probing to also test 130-00 first.

Crude Oil
Oct Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Already having overly discounted the Syrian peace prospects, Tuesday night's speech did not prevent price firming Wednesday, still having potential for extending up to 108.75.

Natural Gas
Wednesday's dip back to recent lows was retraced entirely to retest 3.61 resistance. Thursday's EIA reaction should produce uptrending if an upleg is at all likely prior to resuming the decline.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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